A return to life and custom pre-Covid could fuel an autumn wave of cases, but without the lockdowns, a Government scientific adviser says.
Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said he was ‘cautiously optimistic’ that another lockdown would not be needed to bring cases under control again.
But he said there was a need to be ‘very cautious’ – because previous peaks of infection have been countered by lockdown.
READ MORE: The latest coronavirus infection rates in every borough of Greater Manchester – as cases fall 1,434 in a week
“We’re not doing that this time,” he told Times Radio.
“But I don’t think we will need to go into a lockdown. I hope not anyway. I very much hope not.
“I’m cautiously optimistic about that.”
The claim comes as the number of people in hospital with coronavirus has fallen, and the average rate of infection has decreased.
Infections are expected to rise again in September, when school and university terms begin and more workers return to the office.
Prof Edmunds said: “Will we ever return to completely normal behaviour? I don’t know.
Manchester in December last year
(Image: Daily Mirror/Andy Stenning)
“But there’s a long way to go between the sorts of behaviours that we’re collectively making now and the average behaviour that we were making before the pandemic. There is a big difference.
“If we go back completely to normal, that will certainly fuel an autumn wave.”
His comments were echoed by fellow Sage member Professor Neil Ferguson, who is widely regarded as among the Government’s most prominent scientific advisers on Covid.
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In an interview with the Times, he said: “I think it is unlikely we will need a new lockdown or even social distancing measures of the type we’ve had so far.”
But the Imperial College professor also said lockdowns could not be ruled out, as they may still be needed if the ‘virus changes substantially’.
However, Prof Ferguson added that Covid was ‘going to transition quite quickly in a few months to be more something we live with and manage through vaccination rather than crisis measures’.
He said the vaccine had ‘dramatically changed the relationship between cases and hospitalisation’.
Professor Neil Ferguson
(Image: PA)
Prof Ferguson also said the Euro 2020 football championship had created an ‘artificially inflated level of contact’, leading to his predictions in July that the UK would hit 100,000 Covid cases a day following phase four of unlocking.
After the tournament ended cases decreased and Prof Ferguson said the pingdemic also had a ‘reasonable effect’ on making it harder for the virus to spread.
The coronavirus reproduction number, or R value, in England has fallen and is between 0.8 and 1.1, according to the latest Government figures.
Last week, it was between 1.1 and 1.4.
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
A further 103 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Saturday, bringing the UK total by that measure to 130,281.
As of 9am on Saturday, there had been a further 28,612 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK.
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